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DCF Unlevered · Terminal Value · Multi-país · 6 monedas · Sensibilidades
Escenarios vs caso base
| Escenario | EV (MXN) | Equity (MXN) | EV (USD) | vs Base |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base | $2.78B | $2.78B | $138.02M | 0.0% |
| WACC +1% | $2.30B | $2.30B | $114.33M | -17.2% |
| WACC -1% | $3.46B | $3.46B | $171.51M | +24.3% |
| PPA +10% | $2.78B | $2.78B | $138.02M | 0.0% |
| PPA -10% | $2.78B | $2.78B | $138.02M | 0.0% |
| CF +5pp | $3.47B | $3.47B | $171.97M | +24.6% |
| CF -5pp | $2.10B | $2.10B | $104.08M | -24.6% |
| High inflation (6%) | $3.53B | $3.53B | $175.06M | +26.8% |
| Low inflation (2%) | $2.24B | $2.24B | $111.27M | -19.4% |
| Exit mult 7x | $2.78B | $2.78B | $138.02M | 0.0% |
| Exit mult 12x | $2.90B | $2.90B | $143.71M | +4.1% |
Rango de variacion de cada variable al +/-30%
Rango 70%-130% del valor base para cada variable
Cada variable al +/-10%, +/-20%, +/-30%
| Variable | Cambio | Valor | EV (MXN) | Delta EV | Delta % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Factor de Planta | -30% | 15.40% | $1.88B | $-902.78M | -32.5% |
| Factor de Planta | -20% | 17.60% | $2.18B | $-601.85M | -21.6% |
| Factor de Planta | -10% | 19.80% | $2.48B | $-300.93M | -10.8% |
| Factor de Planta | +10% | 24.20% | $3.08B | +$300.93M | +10.8% |
| Factor de Planta | +20% | 26.40% | $3.38B | +$601.85M | +21.6% |
| Factor de Planta | +30% | 28.60% | $3.68B | +$902.78M | +32.5% |
| Precio PPA | -30% | $665 | $2.78B | +$0 | +0.0% |
| Precio PPA | -20% | $760 | $2.78B | +$0 | +0.0% |
| Precio PPA | -10% | $855 | $2.78B | +$0 | +0.0% |
| Precio PPA | +10% | $1k | $2.78B | +$0 | +0.0% |
| Precio PPA | +20% | $1k | $2.78B | +$0 | +0.0% |
| Precio PPA | +30% | $1k | $2.78B | +$0 | +0.0% |
| OPEX Fijo Anual | -30% | $11.90M | $2.85B | +$68.42M | +2.5% |
| OPEX Fijo Anual | -20% | $13.60M | $2.83B | +$45.61M | +1.6% |
| OPEX Fijo Anual | -10% | $15.30M | $2.80B | +$22.81M | +0.8% |
| OPEX Fijo Anual | +10% | $18.70M | $2.76B | $-22.81M | -0.8% |
| OPEX Fijo Anual | +20% | $20.40M | $2.74B | $-45.61M | -1.6% |
| OPEX Fijo Anual | +30% | $22.10M | $2.71B | $-68.42M | -2.5% |
| WACC | -30% | 5.95% | $5.26B | +$2.47B | +89.0% |
| WACC | -20% | 6.80% | $4.11B | +$1.33B | +47.9% |
| WACC | -10% | 7.65% | $3.34B | +$556.72M | +20.0% |
| WACC | +10% | 9.35% | $2.37B | $-415.20M | -14.9% |
| WACC | +20% | 10.20% | $2.11B | $-668.79M | -24.0% |
| WACC | +30% | 11.05% | $1.91B | $-871.45M | -31.3% |
| Inflacion | -30% | 2.80% | $2.44B | $-344.30M | -12.4% |
| Inflacion | -20% | 3.20% | $2.54B | $-236.94M | -8.5% |
| Inflacion | -10% | 3.60% | $2.66B | $-122.33M | -4.4% |
| Inflacion | +10% | 4.40% | $2.91B | +$130.55M | +4.7% |
| Inflacion | +20% | 4.80% | $3.05B | +$269.87M | +9.7% |
| Inflacion | +30% | 5.20% | $3.20B | +$418.50M | +15.0% |
DCF detallado año por año
| Año | Cal. | Gen (MWh) | $/MWh | PPA Rev | Merch Rev | Revenue | OPEX | EBITDA | Tax | NOL | FCFF | PV FCFF | PV Acum. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2026 | 192,720 | 950 | $128.16M | $54.93M | $183.08M | $17.00M | $166.08M | $49.83M | - | $116.26M | $107.15M | $107.15M |
| 2 | 2027 | 190,798 | 985 | $129.42M | $58.53M | $187.95M | $17.68M | $170.27M | $51.08M | - | $119.19M | $101.25M | $208.40M |
| 3 | 2028 | 188,894 | 1022 | $130.69M | $62.38M | $193.06M | $18.39M | $174.68M | $52.40M | - | $122.27M | $95.73M | $304.13M |
| 4 | 2029 | 187,010 | 1061 | $131.97M | $66.47M | $198.44M | $19.12M | $179.32M | $53.80M | - | $125.53M | $90.58M | $394.70M |
| 5 | 2030 | 185,145 | 1102 | $133.27M | $70.84M | $204.11M | $19.89M | $184.22M | $55.27M | - | $128.95M | $85.76M | $480.46M |
| 6 | 2031 | 183,298 | 1146 | $134.58M | $75.49M | $210.07M | $20.68M | $189.38M | $56.82M | - | $132.57M | $81.26M | $561.72M |
| 7 | 2032 | 181,470 | 1192 | $135.90M | $80.44M | $216.35M | $21.51M | $194.84M | $58.45M | - | $136.38M | $77.05M | $638.77M |
| 8 | 2033 | 179,659 | 1241 | $137.24M | $85.73M | $222.96M | $22.37M | $200.59M | $60.18M | - | $140.41M | $73.11M | $711.88M |
| 9 | 2034 | 177,867 | 1293 | $138.59M | $91.35M | $229.94M | $23.27M | $206.67M | $62.00M | - | $144.67M | $69.43M | $781.30M |
| 10 | 2035 | 176,093 | 1348 | $139.95M | $97.35M | $237.30M | $24.20M | $213.10M | $63.93M | - | $149.17M | $65.98M | $847.28M |
| 11 | 2036 | 174,337 | 1406 | $141.32M | $103.75M | $245.07M | $25.16M | $219.90M | $65.97M | - | $153.93M | $62.75M | $910.03M |
| 12 | 2037 | 172,598 | 1467 | $142.71M | $110.56M | $253.27M | $26.17M | $227.10M | $68.13M | - | $158.97M | $59.72M | $969.75M |
| 13 | 2038 | 170,876 | 1533 | $144.11M | $117.82M | $261.93M | $27.22M | $234.71M | $70.41M | - | $164.30M | $56.89M | $1.03B |
| 14 | 2039 | 169,171 | 1602 | $145.53M | $125.55M | $271.08M | $28.31M | $242.78M | $72.83M | - | $169.94M | $54.24M | $1.08B |
| 15 | 2040 | 167,484 | 1676 | $146.96M | $133.80M | $280.76M | $29.44M | $251.32M | $75.40M | - | $175.92M | $51.75M | $1.13B |
| 16 | 2041 | 165,813 | 2866 | $0 | $475.28M | $475.28M | $30.62M | $444.66M | $133.40M | - | $311.26M | $84.38M | $1.22B |
| 17 | 2042 | 164,159 | 3085 | $0 | $506.49M | $506.49M | $31.84M | $474.65M | $142.39M | - | $332.25M | $83.02M | $1.30B |
| 18 | 2043 | 162,522 | 3321 | $0 | $539.74M | $539.74M | $33.11M | $506.63M | $151.99M | - | $354.64M | $81.67M | $1.38B |
| 19 | 2044 | 160,901 | 3575 | $0 | $575.19M | $575.19M | $34.44M | $540.75M | $162.22M | - | $378.52M | $80.34M | $1.46B |
| 20 | 2045 | 159,296 | 3848 | $0 | $612.95M | $612.95M | $35.82M | $577.14M | $173.14M | - | $404.00M | $79.03M | $1.54B |
Base / Upside / Downside / Lender Case / Combined Stress
| Escenario | EV (MXN) | Equity (MXN) | Min DSCR | LLCR | Equity IRR | $/MW | vs Base |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base Case | $2.78B | $2.78B | - | - | - | $27.81M | 0.0% |
| Upside (+15%) | $3.64B | $3.64B | - | - | - | $36.39M | +30.8% |
| Downside (-15%) | $2.01B | $2.01B | - | - | - | $20.12M | -27.6% |
| Lender Case | $2.26B | $2.26B | - | - | - | $22.57M | -18.8% |
| Combined Stress | $1.77B | $1.77B | - | - | - | $17.67M | -36.5% |